Fitch Ratings has projected that the Ghanaian government could extend temporary fuel price relief measures introduced to cushion consumers against rising petroleum costs.
According to the agency, an extension of the intervention remains likely if the fiscal burden stays below 0.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per month and can be offset through savings in other areas of government expenditure.
The projection was contained in Fitch’s latest country assessment report on Ghana, where the agency also upgraded the country’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, while maintaining a Positive Outlook.
Fitch noted that the government may be compelled to sustain the intervention due to concerns about the impact of rising fuel prices on inflation and broader economic stability.
On April 16, 2026, the government announced temporary measures aimed at easing the burden of rising fuel prices on consumers amid increasing global crude oil prices.
Under the intervention, the state absorbed GH¢2 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol to moderate pump prices and reduce pressure on transport fares and household costs.
The policy, which took effect on April 16, was initially scheduled to run for one month and is expected to expire on May 16, 2026.
At the time of the announcement, Felix Kwakye Ofosu, Minister for Government Communications, stated that the intervention was necessary due to the sharp increase in international crude oil prices and the resulting impact on domestic fuel costs and economic activity.
He said the government remained committed to maintaining price stability, protecting livelihoods and supporting Ghana’s economic recovery amid external economic shocks.
Global crude oil prices have started rising again following reports linked to tensions involving the United States and Iran, with Brent crude reportedly climbing to around $105 per barrel.
The development is expected to influence the next fuel price review cycle beginning May 16, 2026, with industry observers anticipating further increases in local petroleum prices if international market pressures persist.
Current market data already shows petrol prices increasing marginally by between 0.10% and 0.51% per litre, while diesel prices have risen by nearly 6.77%.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are also projected to rise by between 7.24% and 10.41%, largely reflecting delayed adjustments linked to existing tender arrangements that had previously softened earlier price hikes.
Fitch expects inflationary pressures to rise gradually toward the end of 2026 due to higher global oil prices.
However, the agency maintains that inflation should continue easing on an annual average basis through 2026 and 2027.
The report also indicated that the Bank of Ghana is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance to prevent renewed inflation risks after aggressively cutting interest rates between July 2025 and March 2026.
According to Fitch, the central bank reduced the policy rate by a cumulative 1,400 basis points during that period, bringing it down to 14%.
On Ghana’s debt outlook, Fitch projected that public debt could decline further to 46% of GDP by 2027, lower than the forecast median of 51% for countries with similar ‘B’ credit ratings.
The agency attributed the expected improvement to the appreciation of the cedi and ongoing fiscal consolidation measures.
Fitch also forecast strong economic growth over the medium term, projecting average GDP expansion of 5% through 2027, supported by gold mining activity, improving consumer confidence, easing inflation and lower borrowing costs.
Additionally, the agency expects Ghana’s current account surplus to remain strong in 2026 after reaching a record 8.2% of GDP in 2025, driven largely by sustained high global gold prices.
