A senior researcher at Kumasi Technical University, Professor Smart Sarpong, has outlined the critical factors that often determine whether governments retain power or suffer electoral defeat, pointing to public perception as the decisive force in democratic contests.
Speaking on JoyNews AM Show on March 19, Prof. Sarpong explained that electoral outcomes are rarely accidental. Instead, they are shaped by three central dynamics: perceived failure, dishonesty, and disappointment among supporters.
According to him, the first and most influential factor is the perception of failure. Regardless of actual performance, governments risk losing power if citizens believe they have not delivered on their mandate. “If people think you have failed, they will vote against you,” he noted, emphasizing that public judgment often outweighs technical assessments of policy outcomes.
The second factor, which he described as mendacity, relates to trust. When political leaders are seen as inconsistent or as having abandoned their campaign promises, public confidence erodes. This perceived dishonesty, he argued, weakens the bond between governments and the electorate, making it difficult to sustain political support.
Equally significant is disappointment—particularly among party loyalists. Prof. Sarpong observed that unmet expectations can lead to voter apathy, with supporters choosing to abstain rather than switch allegiance. In tightly contested elections, such apathy can prove decisive. “When your supporters fail to vote, it is effectively the same as voting for the opposition,” he explained.
Applying these principles to Ghana’s current political landscape, he identified illegal mining (galamsey) and job creation as key areas shaping perceptions of government performance. These issues, he suggested, remain central to how citizens evaluate leadership.
At the same time, Prof. Sarpong acknowledged that certain macroeconomic indicators could work in the government’s favour. Improvements in exchange rate stability, inflation management, and the cost of living have created a more positive economic outlook. Citing findings from a recent citizen perception survey, he noted that a significant majority of Ghanaians believe living costs have stabilised or moderated over the past year.
However, he cautioned that such gains may not translate into political advantage if they are not clearly understood or felt by the population. Limited public awareness, influenced in part by literacy levels, can prevent citizens from linking macroeconomic improvements to their everyday experiences.
Beyond economic indicators, Prof. Sarpong stressed the importance of service delivery in shaping voter sentiment. Everyday interactions with public institutions, he argued, often have a more immediate and lasting impact on public perception than broader economic data. He pointed to inefficiencies at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Authority as an example, noting delays in vehicle registration and declining service standards.
Such experiences, though seemingly minor, can accumulate and influence electoral behaviour. “These everyday encounters with public services shape perceptions and can ultimately cost votes,” he warned.
While urging policymakers to consolidate economic gains, Prof. Sarpong emphasized that governments must also address practical challenges that affect citizens’ daily lives. Strong macroeconomic performance alone, he argued, is insufficient if the public perceives a decline in governance quality.
He also raised concerns about the effectiveness of parliamentary oversight, linking it to broader issues of governance and accountability. Suggesting reforms, he proposed limiting the size of the majority caucus in Parliament to enhance efficiency and strengthen checks on the executive.
According to him, large parliamentary majorities can weaken oversight, as some Members of Parliament may feel constrained from holding ministers accountable—particularly those serving on the backbench. Internal party dynamics, he added, often discourage open criticism, leading to unresolved constituency concerns and diminished public trust.
Prof. Sarpong concluded that electoral success ultimately depends on a delicate balance: delivering tangible economic results, maintaining credibility, and responding effectively to the everyday needs of citizens. Without this balance, even governments with strong numerical advantages in Parliament may find themselves vulnerable at the polls.
